Designing a Psychological Model for Dropout Prevention Based on School Belonging, Future Hope, and Teachers’ Emotional Support
Keywords:
dropout prevention, school belonging, future hope, teacher emotional support, students, qualitative research, thematic analysisAbstract
This study aimed to design a psychological model for preventing student dropout based on school belonging, future hope, and teachers’ emotional support. This qualitative study was conducted using thematic analysis. The participants consisted of 24 individuals, including at-risk secondary school students, teachers, and school counselors in Tehran, Iran. They were selected through purposive sampling with maximum variation. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and continued until theoretical saturation was achieved. Inclusion criteria included direct experience with dropout risk or students at risk of dropout, willingness to participate, and the ability to describe lived experiences in detail. All interviews were audio-recorded with participants’ consent, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using NVivo software. The analysis process included initial coding, categorization of codes, development of subthemes, and extraction of main themes. To enhance trustworthiness, member checking, peer debriefing, analytic memo writing, and an audit trail were employed. The analysis resulted in four main categories: “reconstructing school belonging,” “strengthening future hope and imaginable pathways to success,” “teachers’ emotional support as a relational protective factor,” and “school-based intervention for early identification and re-engagement of at-risk students.” The findings indicated that dropout, from participants’ perspectives, was not merely the consequence of poor academic performance but rather the outcome of a gradual erosion of emotional connection to school, diminished future orientation, perceived rejection or indifference, and the lack of stable emotional support from teachers. The proposed model highlights the interaction between belonging, hope, and teacher support as central mechanisms of dropout prevention. Dropout prevention requires a psychological, relational, and school-based intervention model in which school becomes a belonging-oriented environment, teachers function as emotional support figures, and future hope serves as a motivational force for educational persistence. The proposed model may provide a practical basis for counseling, educational planning, and school policy interventions aimed at reducing dropout risk among secondary school students.
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